What if minority voters just won’t turn out for non-minority candidates any more?

     That’s a real problem for the Democrats, especially if all the racial politics they pursue in order to try to motivate minority voters (Black Lives Matter, immigration protests, etc.) actually serve to make minorities less likely to vote for whites, even if they’re Democrats. And if working-class whites start to vote Republican the way minorities have voted Democratic — and all that racial politics is likely to encourage that — the Democrats are in trouble.

     

      Instead, they targeted the emerging electorate of young, Latino and African-American voters who catapulted Mr. Obama to victory twice, expecting, mistakenly, that this coalition would support her in nearly the same numbers. They did not.  In the end, Mr. Trump’s simple promise to “Make America Great Again,” a catchphrase Mrs. Clinton dismissed as a vow to return to a racist past already long disappeared, would draw enough white Americans to the polls to make up for his low minority support.  People on both sides of the political spectrum tend to talk and think about minorities as a homogenous block. It is assumed that if a candidate says something bad about immigrants, of course Latinos will be upset. If a politician is bigoted against Muslims, of course black people would disapprove. If a public figure makes insensitive comments about trans citizens, of course women would be upset. Turns out, this is false.

      For instance, many African Americans are critical of immigrants. In fact, many Latinos are unsympathetic towards illegal immigrants, even from Latin America: they are concerned about border security; they often feel they’ve “earned” their place in America, and that others should do the same.

 After the example of Obama, whites will not be inclined to view minority candidates the same again. So if Dems decide to run nothing but minority candidates, I'm not sure that's going to work out for them, either.
Now, let's assume that Blacks, Hispanics and Whites are all racial identity voters, with Whites being the least likely to engage in "identity" voting, Hispanics being slightly more likely to engage in "identity" voting (because in reality there are multiple Hispanic identities that are not mutually compatible) and Blacks being the most likely to engage in "identity" voting.  In this lovely new world created by the racist Democratic Party and they pick a Hispanic candidate. This causes them to loose more Black support ("they ignore our issues again"). Or, instead, they pick another Black candidate. Hispanics are now upset -- "wait, it was our turn, why do Blacks get two nominees in a row?". Meanwhile, either way, Whites increasingly realize that the Democratic party has no home for them.

 When you are being attacked everywhere and every day because of your race, your hitting back is not only understandable, it is justified.


    It is hard to hold a coalition of diverse special interests together. In the long run, it can't be done, of course. Even in the short run, it is hard. Blacks don't give a damn about white women, gays, or Mexicans. Mexicans don't give a damn about blacks, gays, or white women. Etc.  And when your mark finally realizes that he in your mark, all bets are off.  But the elephant in the room is whether minority voters, especially male minority voters, just won't turn out for non-male candidates. The sexism within (what was previously known as) the left is the dirty secret no one wants to talk about. Both black and latino men will be shown to be more reluctant than white men to vote for a woman for President.

 Democrats know that their goose is about to be cooked.  The writing is on the wall.